A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
